**** Info via Environment Canada
Atlantic hurricane season expected to be more active
Get ready for a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic, as the NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has upgraded its prediction earlier this month.
The chance of having more hurricanes than usual has gone up to 60% (from 30% before), while the chance of a regular season dropped to 25%.
Based on these new predictions, this hurricane season we could see 14 to 21 storms (with winds strong enough to give the storm a name), of which 6 to 11 could become hurricanes, and 2 to 5 of those hurricanes might become major ones.
Since the beginning of the season, nine storms have formed in the Atlantic, with one of them becoming a hurricane. On average, we see about 14 named storms in a season, with seven becoming hurricanes and three evolving into major hurricanes.
Warm Atlantic waters shifts the 2023 outlook
Why the change in the outlook? The main factors, among others, come from a mix of El Niño combined with the warmer waters in the Atlantic. Typically, when there is an El Niño event happening, as it is currently the case, it disrupts normal atmospheric conditions in a way that usually prevents hurricanes from forming. However, this year, the warm waters in the Atlantic seem to be the game-changer, as they may be strong enough to counteract the barriers set up by El Niño.
So, while El Niño typically puts a lid on hurricane formation, the warm Atlantic waters might be lifting that lid, allowing storms to brew more freely. Based on this, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center updated their prediction from near-normal to above-normal for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
As a matter of fact, the Canadian Hurricane Centre is currently keeping an eye on Franklin. There’s a chance this storm might enter Canadian waters next week, however, it is still too early to say if there will be any impacts in eastern Canada.
Storm Franklin track map issued on August 23 at 6:00 AM ADT.
