November Temperature Outlook

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**** Info via Environment Canada

November Temperature Outlook

An upper ridge of high pressure brought well above seasonal temperatures across parts of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario through the first week of October. For example, on October 6 Estevan, SK hit 31.9 °C, beating the old record of 31.1 °C set in 1920 and Brandon, MB reached 30.7 °C exceeding the old record of 29.4 °C set way back in 1909.

Temperatures dipped below freezing (-0.5 °C) at Winnipeg Airport, MB on the morning of October 12 – making it the third latest first fall freeze. The average date of the first fall freeze is September 23. Meanwhile temperatures remained well above normal over northern Ontario as well as central and northern Quebec from October 6 to 17th.

Finally, during the last few days of October the BC Coast was battered by back-to-back record-setting fall storms that brought damaging winds, extreme rainfall, dangerous surf, and flooding to many locations. On October 25 buoy 46005 off the west coast of Vancouver Island recorded a pressure of 942.5 mb – which was a new Pacific Northwest pressure record. The previous record was 943 mb, which was recorded during post-tropical cyclone Harriet in 1977.

Here is the forecast for the “temperature anomaly” for the month of November. The temperature anomaly is the “difference from normal temperatures” for the entire month.

The forecasts are categorized as:

  • blue indicates below normal temperatures;
  • white (no colour) indicates near-normal temperatures; and
  • red indicates above normal temperatures – all categories are compared to the 30 seasons of the 1981-2010 period.

This is a prediction of the anomaly of the mean daily temperature at 2 metres (i.e., at standard temperature observation height). It is not a forecast of the maximum nor of the minimum daily temperature.

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