**** Info via Environment Canada
Groundhog Day: Who gets winter and who gets spring?
According to legend, the groundhog emerges from his burrow on February 2, which is halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, to look for its shadow. If it is sunny and the groundhog sees his shadow, it returns to its hole to sleep, and winter continues for six more weeks. (Not bad news by most Canadian standards!). If it does not see its shadow, it remains outside because the worst of winter is over, and warmer spring weather is on its way.
Veteran Groundhogs
Wiarton Willie is the undisrupted Canadian groundhog – a real veteran who has been around in Ontario since 1957. According to his Wiarton keepers, Willie is credited with 90% accuracy in making weather prognostications. However, after looking over 54 years of winter/spring predictions, it appears that Wiarton Willie was right 27 times and wrong 27 times.
Canadian Weather Groundhogs
In recent years, several communities and groups have tried to upstage Canadian Wiarton Willie and grab some of that fifteen minutes of groundhog fame on February 2. Among the imposter rodents are:
- Balzac Billie (Alberta) is a mascot dressed in a red jacket
- Watson Willow (Saskatchewan)
- Brandon Bob (Manitoba)
- Manitoba Merv (Manitoba) a puppet
- Winnipeg Willow (Manitoba – a rare female groundhog)
- Chilly Charlie (Ontario) a human mascot
- Gary the Groundhog (Ontario)
- Madoc Mike (Ontario)
- Fred La Marmotte (Quebec)
- Mactacaddy (New Brunswick)
- Shubenacadie Sam (Nova Scotia)
- Two Rivers Tunnel (Nova Scotia)
However, after analyzing weather data from different Canadian airport locations, here are the chances of temperatures being below normal after February 2, or in other words, the chances of a “groundhog seeing his/her shadow” and winter continuing for six more weeks:
