**** Info via Environment Canada
El Niño expected to continue through April 2024
The World Meteorological Organization predicts that El Niño conditions will continue at least until April 2024, affecting weather patterns globally and contributing to elevated global temperature. El Niño developed quickly in July-August, became moderately strong by September, and is expected to reach its peak from November 2023 to January 2024. There’s a 90% chance it will last through the upcoming winter in the northern hemisphere.
El Niño happens every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. But it’s now happening in a climate strongly influenced by human activities. Record-high land and ocean temperatures since June 2023 indicate that this year is on track to be the warmest ever recorded. This trend is mainly caused by emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities; however, the unprecedented land and sea-surface temperatures in recent months underscore the potential for natural climate variability, such as El Niño conditions, to intensify human-induced warming.
The impacts of El Niño on global temperature are usually strongest in the year following its peak and could make 2024 even warmer than 2023. El Niño can also have strong regional influences, increasing the likelihood of severe weather events like heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall, and floods in some locations. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily always lead to strong local impacts since other factors also influence global and regional climate patterns. Therefore, no two El Niño events are the same.
Historically, Canada is mostly affected by El Niño during winter and spring. Milder than normal winters and springs occur in western, northwestern and central Canada. Generally, El Niño has comparatively minor impacts on southeastern Canada, including the Maritimes, through winter and spring,
For more: El Niño update.
